Retrospective of Three FIFA World Cups: Key Takeaways from an iGaming Study
Europe's largest gambling market — Italy, with an annual GGR of €21.5 billion — is missing its third consecutive World Cup. Meanwhile, the Netherlands, a significantly smaller market, recorded the strongest demand growth among European countries during the last World Cup.
We've put together a summary of research on the European iGaming market during FIFA World Cups — breaking down who actually profits from the tournament, who gets left out, and how practitioners recommend building traffic funnels.
What came before the online betting era?
Analytics platform Blask published a report based on data from three World Cup cycles — 2018, 2022, and 2026 — across six European markets: the UK, Germany, France, Spain, the Netherlands, and Italy.
At the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, Germany won the tournament after demolishing the hosts 7:1 in the semi-final — one of the most shocking results in history. And the Netherlands, surprisingly, finished third — still their best result since 1998.
Notably, not all six markets had licensed regulation at that point. The exception was the Netherlands, where online gambling was unregulated at the time. But the digital infrastructure was entirely different. 2014 was the last World Cup before the mobile revolution that reshaped the logic of player acquisition.
UK: scale matters more than percentages
At the 2018 World Cup, England reached the semi-finals for the first time in 28 years, £1.5 billion was wagered, and operator traffic surged by 200%. But APS (Active Player Share) dropped by -3.2% — a classic mature market effect, where the tournament reactivates existing players rather than bringing in new ones.
The 2022 World Cup shifted the pattern: +5.6% APS. Blask's annual analytics for 2025 shows the UK's top 5 brands: Bet365, William Hill, Sky Bet, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power.
The key figure for understanding the scale: +78,868 new accounts per month at the peak of the 2022 World Cup. Experts expected the 2026 World Cup to boost revenues — the tournament final traditionally draws a larger audience in Europe than the Super Bowl or the Champions League final.
Germany: culture over results
The German market is a textbook example of football culture mattering more than the national team's results. 2018 World Cup: eliminated in the group stage as defending champions, yet APS grew by +14.5%. 2022 World Cup: a second consecutive group-stage exit, APS still +9.4%, CEB (Competitive Earning Baseline) rose to $149M versus a baseline of $139M.
Top 5 brands in 2025: Tipico, NV Casino, Bet365, Vulkan Vegas, Merkur. Worth noting separately is the offshore problem: the share of offshore branded demand reached 61.9% in April 2025 following a relaxation of enforcement, then dropped to 29.4% in December after payment blocking and domain restrictions were reinstated.
Licensed operators faced heightened offshore competition during the 2026 World Cup tournament window. Experts emphasize that German demand doesn't wait on the national team's results — the core audience is already strong enough to perform regardless of tournament outcomes.
France: the champion's paradox
France won the 2018 World Cup and reached the 2022 final, yet APS fell by -25.5% in 2018. The decline began as early as April, before the tournament kicked off, due to regulatory pressure on the market. Even though the numbers tell a different story — a record €690M in bets, €67M on the final alone, 960,000 new accounts in a single quarter.
The 2022 World Cup stats were solid: +7.5% APS, €597M in online bets, €51M on the France vs. Argentina final alone. Top 5 brands: Parions Sport, Betclic, Winamax, Unibet — and notably — Wild Sultan.
France's structural problem runs deeper than any other country in the report: the license covers sports betting only, with no online casino. Operators cannot openly acquire players for slots or live casino during the tournament — which, according to Blask's estimates, represents 40–60% of additional revenue in other markets.
Experts recommend operators build campaigns in phases — pre-tournament activation, retention offers during the playoffs, and reactivation in the final week.
Italy: the biggest market the World Cup can't save
Italy has failed to qualify for the World Cup three times in a row: 2018, 2022, and 2026. At the 2018 World Cup, APS dropped by -15.2%. Notably, even the Euro 2020 victory didn't translate into growth at the following 2022 World Cup — APS did rise to +5.9%, but that was a result of parallel Serie A and Champions League activity.
The top 5 brands are growing regardless: Sisal, BetFlag, GoldBet, Bet365, Lottomatica. The market is booming — just with no connection to the World Cup whatsoever.
An additional structural barrier is the complete ban on gambling advertising since 2019. Even if the national team had qualified, operators would not have been able to run full-scale campaigns during the tournament.
Experts suggest workarounds — content without the Italian flag: global superstars, tournament winner betting, plus content marketing through previews and podcasts instead of prohibited advertising.
Netherlands: Maximum Impact
2018 World Cup: +17.8% APS, despite the national team not even qualifying — this shows that betting demand does not depend on the home team's participation. 2022 World Cup: APS +20.1%, the strongest surge in the dataset.
The top 3 brands are losing year-over-year metrics: Toto, Unibet, BetCity. Meanwhile, global players are growing: OneCasino and Bet365.
KSA restricts the use of celebrities and untargeted advertising of high-risk games, while offshore operators face no such limitations. Experts point to boosted odds on matches, cashback on early elimination, and ironic promos referencing the team's past failures. The audience is digitally mature and ad-savvy, so copy-pasting bonus campaigns won't work — authentic creative content is required.
Spain: The Rising Favorite
Spain's story was weak for a long time: -5.5% APS at the 2018 World Cup, -2.1% at the 2022 World Cup, with early exits both times. The pattern shifted at Euro 2024: the victory delivered +7.7% APS, +10.4%, and a record quarterly GGR of €405 million. Spain needs to go far — at minimum to the semi-finals — to unlock real demand.
Top 5 brands: Bet365, Sportium, Codere, bwin, and the most notable growth — Luckia, a local brand aggressively scaling ahead of the World Cup. Spain entered the 2026 World Cup as a bookmaker favorite, defending the European Championship title at the largest tournament in history.
However, strict advertising restrictions have been in place since 2020 — the Royal Decree blocks celebrities and the mass television playbook. The primary bet, therefore, is on affiliates, sports media content, and CRM marketing for already verified customers. The Spanish market clearly requires local narratives and relevant content.
What Makes the 2026 World Cup Different
The 2026 World Cup takes place in the same seasonal window as Euro 2024 — June–July, rather than November–December as was the case with the Qatar tournament. Accordingly, Euro 2024 results by country can be used as a working benchmark for expectations from a summer tournament.
Spain enters not merely as a participant, but as a favorite and reigning European champion. According to researchers' estimates, if Spain reaches the final or wins, the market will see the largest demand spike ever recorded: the champion effect, already documented in Latin America following Argentina's 2022 victory, will play out on a larger and more mature European market.
The Netherlands, in turn, enters on the momentum of their Euro 2024 semi-final run heading into their second licensed World Cup — meaning a repeat of the strong 2022 World Cup result looks entirely realistic.
Great Britain remains the wildcard. If England reaches the semi-finals or final, the "it's finally coming home" narrative combined with the extended 104-match format could break through the ceiling of a mature market for the first time — something that didn't happen at either the 2018 or 2022 World Cups.
For Italy, 2026 marks a third consecutive absence from the World Cup, and the primary structural loss for European iGaming. The largest market by GGR adds zero percentage points to overall European demand — simply because there is no one to root for the home team.
Takeaways
The retrospective shows that money at the World Cup is made not by those whose team plays best, but by those whose market is structurally ready to capture that demand. For 2026 World Cup campaigns, the conclusion is straightforward: budgets should be allocated according to market structure.
