How Prediction Markets Work During the 2026 FIFA World Cup
The 2026 FIFA World Cup has become one of the key drivers of growth in prediction markets. While millions of fans follow matches across the US, Canada, and Mexico, traders are simultaneously trading forecasts on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
In this piece, we break down how prediction markets differ from sports betting, who is shaping this market today, and why the 2026 World Cup has become a pivotal milestone in its development.
Why prediction markets ≠ betting
Despite their surface-level resemblance to sports betting, prediction markets operate on a different logic. For a deeper dive into the basic mechanics of prediction markets, check out our previous article.
The key distinction between this industry and traditional gambling lies in its legal and economic nature. In the US, prediction markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — a federal financial regulator that oversees derivatives and commodity markets, not the gambling industry.
Users trade financial contracts whose prices are determined entirely by market supply and demand, rather than by a bookmaker setting fixed odds. Contract values fluctuate continuously in response to news, which makes prediction markets far closer to traditional financial exchanges.
However, some US states are attempting to challenge the status of these instruments, arguing that they are effectively bets disguised as financial products. This has led to legal conflicts between federal and state-level regulators.
Top players in the prediction markets space
Today, the market is shaped by several key players who have already turned it into a distinct crypto segment.
Kalshi is the largest regulated operator in the US, operating under CFTC oversight. The company is building a model around legal event contracts and is actively expanding through fintech partnerships and new markets outside the US.
Polymarket is the largest decentralized prediction market. It gained prominence thanks to deep liquidity and a wide range of markets. This is where high-profile cases of sharp multi-million-dollar wins and losses regularly emerge.
Novig is a new entrant that received Designated Contract Market status from the CFTC, enabling it to operate across all 50 US states within a regulated framework. Just a week prior, competitor ProphetX received the same designation — a sign of how quickly the queue of companies seeking to become licensed platforms is growing.
Prediction markets during the 2026 World Cup
The 2026 World Cup has been one of the most active periods for prediction markets. Against the backdrop of the tournament, Kalshi and Polymarket announced new products, partnerships, and expansion into new markets.
During this period, Kalshi struck a partnership with fintech service Wealthsimple and entered the Canadian market right as the World Cup was underway. The joint product Wealthsimple Predict marked another step in Kalshi's expansion beyond the US, despite regulatory constraints. The Canadian platform currently allows trading only on contracts tied to economic indicators, financial markets, and climate — sports and political categories remain prohibited in the country.
On Polymarket, a case emerged where a trader lost nearly $1M on the Cape Verde vs. Spain match. Meanwhile, a trader under the handle fishalive bet on Spain not winning and walked away with $4.3M in net profit.
Additionally, Polymarket announced a partnership with Splash Sports and the launch of an NFL Survivor Contest with a $21M prize pool. This figure surpassed the previous market record set by Circa Sports ($20M), signaling that prediction platforms are scaling into other sports leagues, including the NFL.
Why this matters for the affiliate market
Prediction platforms are integrating into affiliate marketing through partner programs, promo codes, and referral systems. Operators are positioning their products as analytics-driven probability trading tools, drawing a clear contrast with traditional sports betting.
Major media outlets, including SportsLine and Fox Sports, are already monetizing traffic through this model by publishing educational guides on how to work with event contracts. For the affiliate market, this vertical represents an alternative audience acquisition channel with significantly lower competition compared to traditional gambling.
The niche is developing amid regulatory uncertainty. As noted earlier, certain US states maintain that sports event contracts are bets disguised as financial instruments, and are pushing to bring platforms under local gambling regulation rather than CFTC oversight. The outcome of these legal disputes could reshape the rules for Kalshi, Polymarket, and newly licensed players alike.
There is a parallel here with sweepstakes casinos. A model that was considered a solid legal workaround just a few years ago ran into dual-currency bans after states tightened regulation. Prediction markets could follow the same path.
Conclusion
Prediction markets have already established themselves as a fully-fledged segment of the financial and crypto markets. Platform growth, new licensed entrants, and expansion into international markets all indicate this is not a short-term trend.
The 2026 World Cup amplified the momentum. Even so, the market's long-term prospects will largely depend on regulatory decisions.
